供需格局难扭转 玻璃缺乏持续向上驱动

Core Viewpoint - The glass futures market has transitioned from a downward trend to a phase of low-level consolidation, influenced by cost support and geopolitical factors, despite weak demand from the real estate sector [1][2]. Supply Side - As of July 4, the daily melting capacity of domestic float glass remained stable at 157,800 tons, with production expected to increase due to ongoing ignition plans for production lines [1]. - There is a strong resistance against excessive cost-cutting and low-quality competition, with calls for orderly market practices [1]. - The overall supply of float glass may continue to rise, which could limit price increases without strong policy measures [1]. Demand Side - The demand for float glass is weak, primarily driven by poor real estate data, with most orders concentrated in a short timeframe of 3-7 days [2]. - The market is awaiting potential policy measures such as interest rate cuts or incentives for the real estate sector, which could stimulate demand and lead to price increases [2]. Profitability - As of last week, the weekly profit margins for float glass varied significantly based on fuel type, with negative profits for natural gas and petroleum coke, while coal gas showed a positive margin [2]. - Float glass prices are currently undervalued, and with costs stabilizing, the downside potential for prices is limited [2]. Inventory Levels - As of July 3, the total inventory of float glass in sample enterprises was 69.085 million heavy boxes, indicating a historically high level, while downstream inventories remain low [3]. - A shift in market sentiment could lead to speculative replenishment in the downstream sector, potentially triggering a price increase [3]. Overall Market Outlook - The trend of declining float glass prices appears to have paused, supported by cost factors and improved macroeconomic sentiment, but sustained price increases lack strong drivers [3]. - The supply and demand dynamics are unlikely to undergo fundamental changes, but there is potential for policy support and speculative inventory replenishment to create short-term price fluctuations [3].