沪指周三盘中站上3500点，市场扰动仍存，关注十年国债ETF（511260）

Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 3500 points before retreating, indicating a generally stable market trend [1] - The VIX index calculated from the SSE 50 and CSI 300 ETF options has not shown a significant upward spike, suggesting a lower risk of sharp market fluctuations in the future [1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive at 0.10% year-on-year, with a core CPI of 0.70%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.10% month-on-month [3] - The rise in CPI is attributed to seasonal weather effects, with vegetable prices increasing and a notable recovery in international oil prices impacting domestic energy prices [3] - Food prices decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with beef prices rising by 2.7% after 28 months of decline, while pork prices fell by 8.5% [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - Due to ongoing pressures on CPI and PPI from consumer confidence and international trade risks, there is potential for a 10 basis point interest rate cut by the central bank in Q4, lowering the 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.3% [4] - This could create more space in the bond market, with investors advised to focus on government bond ETFs [4] Group 4: International Economic Developments - The recent signing of the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the U.S. has expanded the deficit, with implications for various sectors, including traditional energy, manufacturing, and real estate, which may benefit from tax advantages [4] - The impact on A-shares remains unclear, but potential fiscal expansion in the U.S. could enhance demand for Chinese exports, particularly capital goods and equipment [4]