债市展望：三季度或为债市做多窗口

Monetary Policy - The central bank implemented a double reduction on May 7, lowering the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points and the interest rate by 10 basis points, indicating limited room for aggressive monetary policy adjustments [1] - Future expectations include a potential interest rate cut of 20 basis points and a reserve requirement ratio cut of 50 basis points due to economic downturn pressures in the third quarter [2] - The weighted net interest margin for commercial banks has narrowed to 1.43%, significantly below the acceptable level of 1.8%, raising concerns about bank profitability [2] Fiscal Policy - Government bond issuance has reached nearly 8 trillion yuan by mid-year, a significant increase from approximately 4-5 trillion yuan last year, primarily for debt resolution rather than project financing [1] - The expectation is for accelerated issuance of special bonds for projects in the second half of the year, with an additional 1 to 1.5 trillion yuan in government bonds likely to be issued [3] Bond Market Outlook - The ten-year government bond yield is seen as a key indicator, currently hovering around 1.65%, which is considered a suitable level by the central bank [3] - The bond market is expected to experience a downward trend in yields, with a potential drop to around 1.5% if interest rates are cut by more than 20 basis points [5] - The recommendation for investment includes the ten-year government bond ETF (511260), which reflects the bond market's performance and offers advantages such as T+0 trading [5]