下半年美联储有望降息？

Group 1 - The key focus for bonds in the overseas market is the Federal Reserve's policy, with expectations of monetary easing due to limited impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation [1] - The U.S. import price index has shown minimal fluctuation despite the imposition of tariffs, indicating limited transmission to CPI and PPI [3][4] - The core PPI in the U.S. increased by only 0.1% in May, contrasting sharply with the 10% rise in tariffs, suggesting that inflation is a major constraint on the Federal Reserve's easing policy [4][7] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's current federal funds rate of 4.5% is among the highest globally, with core CPI and core PPI around 2%, indicating significant real interest rates [7] - The expectation is for the Federal Reserve to lower rates three times by the end of the year, starting from the September meeting, potentially bringing the rate down to 3.75% [7][8] - The market anticipates a more dovish shift from the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year, despite the challenges in predicting inflation trends [8] Group 3 - In the context of trade negotiations, there remains a high level of uncertainty, leading to a recommendation to focus on the 10-year Treasury ETF (511260) as a core investment tool [9] - The 10-year Treasury yield is considered a key indicator of the bond market, and the ETF offers advantages such as T+0 trading [9]