亚朵集团（ATAT.US）估值隐患：业绩拐点下的基本面担忧

Core Viewpoint - Atour Group's valuation is excessively overstretched relative to its performance, facing downward pressure from fundamentals and shareholder sell-offs, leading to significant downside potential amid declining performance indicators [1][9][11] Group 1: Financial Performance - Atour Group's revenue growth rates for 2023-2025 Q1 were 106.19%, 55.34%, and 29.8%, while shareholder net profit growth rates were 651.42%, 73.01%, and -5.6% respectively, indicating a sharp decline in performance [2] - The company's average daily room rate (ADR), revenue per available room (RevPAR), and occupancy rate (OCC) have all shown a downward trend, with Q1 2025 figures at 418 RMB, 304 RMB, and 70.2% respectively, reflecting significant declines from previous quarters [6][7] Group 2: Business Segments - Atour Group operates three main business segments: hotel operations, rental hotel operations, and retail, all of which have experienced declining revenue growth since 2023, particularly rental hotels which are projected to see double-digit declines in 2024 [2][5] - The retail business, which focuses on hotel-related products, has seen its revenue share increase from 11.22% in 2022 to 36.41% in Q1 2025, despite a slowdown in growth [2][8] Group 3: Management and Shareholder Actions - Significant shareholder sell-offs have occurred, with major shareholders reducing their stakes from 24.7% and 15.5% to 8% and 4.98% respectively, signaling a lack of confidence in the company's future [9][10] - The company's management has also engaged in share sell-offs, with a new CFO starting to liquidate shares shortly after joining, raising concerns about insider confidence [10][11] Group 4: Market Position and Valuation - Atour Group's price-to-book (PB) ratio exceeds 10, indicating a high valuation compared to peers like Huazhu and Hyatt, which raises concerns about potential valuation corrections [1][11] - The company's high sales expense ratio, which increased from 6.19% in 2022 to 14.85% in Q1 2025, has pressured profitability, with net profit margins declining to 12.75% [8][11]