行业反内卷+盈利修复，光伏50ETF（159864）涨超2%

Policy Developments - The introduction of "anti-involution" policies is expected to accelerate supply-side reforms in the photovoltaic (PV) industry, with the government showing a strong commitment to addressing the issue [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has revised the "Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry Normative Conditions," which aims to guide companies to reduce low-level expansions and increase the capital ratio for new projects to 30%, while also strengthening technical requirements [1] - The new regulations are anticipated to expedite the exit of outdated production capacities and enhance industry concentration, benefiting leading companies through market share restructuring [1] Market Trends - Recent significant recovery in the spot price of polysilicon, with leading companies raising prices to 37 yuan per kilogram, and futures contracts experiencing consecutive price increases, with expectations for prices to rise further to 39-40 yuan per kilogram [1] - The silicon wafer segment is also seeing price increases, with several companies raising their prices by 8% to 11.7%, indicating a gradual improvement in profit expectations across the industry chain [1] - The combination of policy-driven production cuts and price rebounds is expected to support profit recovery in Q3, with the sector likely to continue its upward trend [1] Investment Opportunities - The photovoltaic ETF (159864), which tracks the CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index covering the entire industry chain, has risen over 13% in the past year, with constituent stocks like GCL-Poly Energy and Hongyuan Green Energy hitting the daily limit [2] - The index has experienced prior volatility and is currently at a low valuation, combined with strong policy interventions and a rebound in polysilicon prices, signaling a potential turning point for industry profitability [2] - Investors interested in the sector may consider the photovoltaic ETF (159864) for exposure to leading companies in the industry [2]