期债 继续高位徘徊

Group 1 - The bond market is currently lacking a unilateral driving force, with fluctuations primarily influenced by the stock-bond "teeter-totter" effect [1] - As of Wednesday afternoon, the yield on the 10-year government bond was reported at 2.6430%, up 0.2 basis points from last Friday's close, while the 30-year bond yield was at 2.8575%, up 0.6 basis points [1] - The futures market showed a cumulative decline in the main contracts for 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year government bonds of 0.09%, 0.05%, 0.08%, and 0.04% respectively over the first three trading days of the week, indicating a return to low volatility [1] Group 2 - The market's reaction to changes in U.S. tariffs has become muted, with investors adapting to Trump's fluctuating policies, leading to a lack of significant risk aversion [2] - The Trump administration plans to extend the 90-day tariff delay on non-Chinese economies and has announced new tariffs on imports from Japan, South Korea, and other countries, but the market does not expect extreme volatility as seen in April [2] - Ongoing trade negotiations with major economies like the EU, Japan, and India remain challenging, contributing to uncertainty in future tariff discussions [2] Group 3 - The focus on "anti-involution" policies in China has intensified, with the PPI showing a year-on-year decline due to factors such as increased green energy and adverse weather affecting construction and manufacturing [3] - The central government's emphasis on addressing "involution" issues has been ongoing since July of last year, with recent meetings highlighting the need to regulate low-price competition and improve product quality [3] - The "anti-involution" initiative is expected to have a long-term and moderate impact on supply-side policies, similar to the supply-side structural reforms of 2015 [4] Group 4 - The uncertainty regarding long-term bond supply has decreased marginally, with the central bank's recent operations reflecting a stable liquidity environment [5] - The Ministry of Finance's announcement of the third-quarter government bond issuance plan indicates a slight reduction in supply pressure compared to market expectations [5] - The central bank's lack of recent government bond trading operations suggests a sufficient reserve of liquidity tools, reducing the necessity for bond buybacks [5] Group 5 - The bond market is likely to continue a high-level oscillation pattern due to the current observation phase in both the fundamental and policy environments [6] - The stable operation of the fundamentals indicates that there is no immediate need for aggressive monetary easing tools, and further interest rate declines require new catalysts [6] - External uncertainties and the ongoing recovery of internal growth momentum suggest that there is no strong basis for a significant rebound in interest rates [7]