新美联储通讯社：如何看待美联储内部降息分歧，未来几个月的通胀数据很重要

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing significant internal debate regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation and the appropriate response, which may disrupt its previously unified stance [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve is not expected to lower interest rates this month, but Chairman Powell has indicated that the threshold for rate cuts may be lower than in the spring due to tariff-related inflation concerns [2][5]. - Powell's recent comments suggest a middle ground approach, where moderate price readings or weak employment data could justify a rate cut before the end of summer [2][7]. - The internal division within the Federal Reserve is highlighted by differing opinions on whether tariffs will lead to sustained inflation, with some officials advocating for a wait-and-see approach [5][6]. Group 2: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The recent adjustments to Trump's tariff policy have altered the conditions for potential interest rate cuts, with concerns about stagflation arising from earlier tariff increases [5][6]. - There is currently no significant evidence of consumer price increases related to tariffs, although many officials expect to see such effects in upcoming June and July data [5][6]. - The debate centers around whether businesses will pass on increased costs to consumers, with some officials cautioning against premature conclusions [6][7]. Group 3: Future Data and Strategy - The upcoming inflation data will serve as a critical test for the Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding tariff impacts and the management of costs if predictions are incorrect [6][7]. - Powell's stance provides tactical flexibility for the Federal Reserve, allowing for potential rate cuts based on economic conditions without fully committing to a specific inflation outlook [7].