黄金短期或维持宽幅震荡的格局，长期向上的逻辑依然清晰

Group 1: Gold ETF Performance - As of July 10, the Gold ETF (159937) increased by 0.73% with a turnover rate of 0.65% and a transaction amount of 184 million yuan [1] - The Gold ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past four days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 87.7045 million yuan, totaling 185 million yuan and an average daily net inflow of 46.2391 million yuan [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Federal Reserve Policy - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July have cooled significantly, with the two-year Treasury yield rising over the past week [2] - The expectation for a rate cut in July has decreased to about 4 basis points, with an annual cumulative rate cut expectation of 63 basis points, slightly down from the end of June [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the need to understand the impact of tariffs on inflation before making any rate cuts, ignoring calls for immediate significant cuts [2] Group 3: Geopolitical Situation and Central Bank Actions - The geopolitical situation has recently cooled, with a low probability of further escalation in the short term [3] - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in gold reserves, reaching 73.9 million ounces as of June 2025, marking the eighth consecutive month of growth [3] Group 4: Trading Strategies and Long-term Outlook - SPDR Gold ETF holdings have shifted to outflows since June 30, but overall holdings remain higher than early June levels [4] - Analysts suggest that while the delay in rate cut expectations and easing geopolitical risks may lead to a weaker short-term gold price, the long-term upward trend remains clear due to ongoing global central bank gold purchases and geopolitical uncertainties [4][6] - Investment strategies recommend accumulating gold positions during market dips, focusing on geopolitical risks and inflation hedging [6] Group 5: Technical Analysis and Investment Recommendations - Short-term strategies suggest investors should accumulate gold gradually based on technical signals, while maintaining a long-term allocation to gold as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty [6] - The Gold ETF (159937) and its linked funds offer low-cost, diversified trading options, aligning closely with domestic gold prices [6]