PP：下游开工降、企业开工率跌，期价涨0.34%

Core Viewpoint - The polypropylene (PP) market is experiencing a decline in downstream operating rates, leading to supply pressure and potential price fluctuations at low levels [1] Group 1: Downstream Operations - The PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.27 percentage points to 48.78%, which is lower than the historical average for this time of year [1] - The operating rate for plastic weaving fell by 1.0 percentage points to 42.2%, with a slight reduction in orders, although it remains higher than the same period in the previous two years [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent increase in tariffs by the U.S. has impacted PP downstream product exports, while propane imports for polypropylene production are restricted [1] - New maintenance at Yulong Petrochemical's third line has caused the PP enterprise operating rate to drop to around 82%, indicating a neutral to low level [1] - The production ratio for standard filament has decreased to approximately 28.5%, with inventory levels remaining neutral compared to previous years [1] Group 3: Market Conditions - Following OPEC+'s agreement to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, oil prices have seen a rebound after a decline [1] - The southern region is entering a rainy and hot season, leading to slow recovery in downstream operations, reduced plastic weaving activity, and limited new orders [1] - The market is expected to see low-level fluctuations in PP prices, with a need to monitor global trade war developments [1] Group 4: Futures and Spot Market - The PP2509 futures contract experienced a reduction in positions, with a minimum price of 7040 yuan/ton and a maximum of 7080 yuan/ton, closing at 7078 yuan/ton, reflecting a 0.34% increase [1] - Spot prices for PP in various regions have mostly declined, with filament prices reported between 6950 and 7250 yuan/ton [1] Group 5: Raw Material Prices - As of July 4, the weekly inventory of PP in petrochemical companies decreased by 15,000 tons to 765,000 tons, which is lower than the same period last year [1] - The Brent crude oil September contract rose to $70 per barrel, while the CFR propylene price in China fell by $10 per ton to $785 per ton [1]