世界黄金协会：“小型危机”正在路上，黄金才是终极避风港

Core Viewpoint - The World Gold Council analysts believe that gold prices will benefit from the soaring U.S. deficit and increasing fiscal instability, even in the absence of short-term crises [2] Group 1: Economic and Fiscal Factors - The passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill is expected to add $3.4 trillion in debt over the next decade unless the Trump administration meets its growth forecasts, raising the debt ceiling by $5 trillion [2] - Political tensions, particularly Elon Musk's threat to form the "American Party," are contributing to accumulating fiscal and political risks [2] - Global capital is being reallocated due to these uncertainties, with a weakening dollar driving up gold prices and U.S. Treasury yields [2][5] Group 2: Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics - Investors are increasingly turning to gold as a safe haven due to rising fiscal concerns, despite the traditional view that rising interest rates hinder gold prices [2][7] - Since 2022, other factors have rebalanced the inverse correlation between interest rates and gold prices, with gold prices rising even when real interest rates exceed 2% [2] - Central bank purchases, particularly from emerging market central banks, have become a significant factor in the strengthening of gold prices [2] Group 3: Long-term Implications - The long-standing fiscal issues have been a crucial support for the gold market, especially as the gap between U.S. Treasury yields and fixed-rate swaps widens, indicating increased market sensitivity to U.S. fiscal problems [5] - Although the World Gold Council does not foresee a full-blown fiscal crisis in the U.S., a series of smaller crises could arise due to debt ceiling issues or defaults, increasing market instability and demand for gold as a safe haven [5][6] - Analysts warn that if leaders appear to weaken their commitment to long-term fiscal discipline, the bond market's reaction could be swift and severe [6]