港股国企ETF（159519）涨超1.2%，供给收缩预期或催化周期行情

Group 1 - China Shipbuilding's merger with China State Shipbuilding Corporation was approved by the Shanghai Stock Exchange on July 9, 2025, marking the conclusion of the largest capital operation in the domestic shipbuilding industry [1] - The Chinese commercial aerospace industry is experiencing a wave of securitization, with Jiangsu Deep Blue Aerospace completing nearly 500 million yuan in financing for reusable rocket development, and Chengdu Guoxing Aerospace submitting a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] - Yunnan's state-owned enterprises are driving investment growth through major projects, while China FAW's vehicle sales exceeded 1.57 million units in the first half of 2025, and the State Grid's 140 peak summer projects have all been put into operation, demonstrating the ongoing efforts of state-owned enterprises in industrial upgrading and public welfare [1] Group 2 - GF Securities indicates that the "anti-involution" policy in 2025 has initiated a new round of supply contraction across industries such as steel, cement, automotive, and photovoltaic [2] - The Steel Association is calling for resistance against "involution-style" competition, while the cement industry is promoting the implementation of capacity replacement policies, and automotive companies are adjusting supplier payment terms and sales strategies [2] - Photovoltaic glass companies collectively reduced production by 30% to alleviate low-price competition, with historical cases of supply contraction indicating that market sentiment typically remains cautious at the policy's onset [2]