双面因素交织，有色ETF的十字路口如何抉择？

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in non-ferrous metals prices are influenced by supply-side reforms in China and the announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports by the U.S. starting August 1, 2025, which has created a divergence in copper prices between the U.S. and China [1][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The supply-side reforms in China have benefitted traditional industries like aluminum, steel, and coal, leading to price increases due to low inventory levels [1]. - Following the U.S. tariff announcement, copper prices in New York rose over 2%, while domestic copper prices in China fell, indicating market concerns about reduced global demand for copper [1][7]. - The China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Index showed a strong upward trend initially but experienced a significant drop during the tariff announcement period, reflecting market volatility [1]. Group 2: Financing Trends - As of July 9, 2025, the financing balance for the non-ferrous metals sector increased by 9.64 billion, indicating strong investor interest despite market fluctuations [4][6]. - The construction materials sector saw the highest financing balance growth rate at 1.43%, followed by non-ferrous metals at 1.22% [4][6]. Group 3: ETF Strategies - The non-ferrous metals ETFs are relatively small in scale, with three funds exceeding 4 billion in size, including the leading Southern CSI Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals ETF [8][10]. - The Dachen Non-Ferrous Metals Futures ETF is sensitive to price fluctuations due to its direct tracking of futures contracts, making it suitable for investors who closely monitor commodity prices [10][12]. - The Southern CSI Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals ETF, with a scale exceeding 50 billion, is favored by investors for its comprehensive coverage of the non-ferrous metals sector [10][13]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term risks from U.S. tariffs and seasonal demand fluctuations, supply constraints are expected to support copper prices in the medium term [7]. - The long-term demand for copper and aluminum is anticipated to increase, driven by structural changes in downstream consumption, which may elevate the price stability of these metals [19].