每日投行/机构观点梳理（2025-07-10）

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley estimates that the average tariff rate in the U.S. will rise from 13.4% to 14.6% due to new tariffs announced by Trump [1] - Deutsche Bank's independent analysis suggests that the new average tariff rate could exceed 18% [1] - If Trump continues to implement additional trade measures, the overall average tariff rate in the U.S. could increase by up to 6 percentage points [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs indicates that the dollar may soon trade as a "high-risk" currency, but the permanent shift in its safe-haven appeal has not yet been observed [2] - Citigroup analysts believe that Trump's tariffs will abruptly close the window for copper exports to the U.S., potentially lasting through the remainder of 2025 [3] - Barclays warns that proposed tariffs on pharmaceuticals could lead to significant price increases and shortages, impacting consumers directly [7] Group 3 - UBS has closed its long positions in U.S. Treasuries, waiting for higher yields to re-enter the market [5] - Standard Chartered reports that reserve managers appear to be deliberately increasing their dollar holdings amid pressures on the currency [6] - Singapore's OCBC Bank predicts a shift towards a more fragmented global order, leading to sustained inflation and a weaker dollar over the next five to ten years [9] Group 4 - The Dutch Cooperative Bank notes a rebound in the dollar, with expectations for the euro to rise to 1.20 in the medium term [10] - Citic Securities highlights opportunities in the copper sector as prices are expected to return to fundamental levels amid low inventories [11] - Citic Jian Investment reports ongoing global fund rebalancing, with continued outflows from U.S. equities [12]