Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-07-10 08:46Core Viewpoint - The U.S. plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper, which is expected to significantly impact the global copper market starting August 1, 2025 [1]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Copper Prices - The announcement of the 50% tariff has already led to a surge in New York copper prices, with a premium of 25% over London copper prices, indicating strong market expectations regarding the tariff implementation [2]. - As sellers rush to ship copper to the U.S. for higher premiums, this has temporarily increased copper prices in both Shanghai and London, although this price increase is not expected to be sustainable [1][4]. Group 2: Inventory and Supply Dynamics - U.S. copper inventories have surged from 93 thousand tons to 211 thousand tons, the highest level since 2018, reflecting significant stockpiling ahead of the tariff [4]. - London copper inventories decreased from 271 thousand tons to 90 thousand tons, while Shanghai copper inventories fell from 377 thousand tons in March to 126 thousand tons in June, indicating a tightening supply that may reverse with the new tariff [3]. Group 3: Seasonal Demand and Market Adjustments - Seasonal demand in China is showing signs of weakness, which could impact copper prices and the profitability of related companies, despite a strong performance in the first five months of 2025 [5]. - The ongoing shortage of copper concentrate and negative treatment charges (TC/RC) are increasing cost pressures on Chinese copper producers, further complicating the market outlook [5].