巨富金业：美联储会议纪要释放降息分歧信号，黄金市场政策博弈

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts, with some supporting a cut in July while others prefer to wait for more economic data to assess the impact of tariff policies on inflation [2][4] - The uncertainty surrounding the transmission of tariffs and their impact on inflation is a central theme, with some officials believing that tariffs could raise inflation through supply chains, while others emphasize the resilience of the U.S. economy based on recent economic data [4] - The Federal Reserve's stance reflects a "wait and see" approach, with 10 out of 19 officials expecting at least two rate cuts this year, while 7 believe no cuts are necessary, and 2 support only one cut [4] Group 2 - The expectation of interest rate cuts has a dual effect on the gold market, with short-term pressure due to a decrease in the probability of a July cut from 55% to around 40%, leading to short-term declines in gold prices [5] - Long-term supportive factors for gold include ongoing global central bank purchases, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold reserves for eight consecutive months, reaching 73.9 million ounces by the end of June [7] - Structural support for gold is also provided by the expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit and the weakening of the dollar's credit, with the dollar index declining by 10.7% this year, despite the cooling expectations for a July rate cut [7]