Zheshang Securities(SH:601878) 智通财经网·2025-07-10 09:27Group 1: Macro Economic Trends - The offline retail cycle is approaching, supported by macroeconomic factors, pricing, and consumer policies, with innovation driving this transformation and enhancing profitability [1] - In Q1 2025, domestic travel reached 1.794 billion trips, a year-on-year increase of 26.4%, with urban residents contributing 1.318 billion trips, up 22.4% [2] - The overall tourism market in 2025 is expected to focus on cost-effectiveness, with significant growth in lower-tier markets and county tourism [2] Group 2: Travel and Tourism Insights - Cross-border travel is rapidly recovering, with 160 million inbound and outbound trips in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, reaching 95.6% of 2019 levels [2] - A significant portion of travelers, 81%, prefer not to follow trends to popular destinations, indicating a shift towards personalized travel experiences [3] - The demand for better travel products and services is high among older travelers, with 84% expressing this desire [3] Group 3: OTA and Competition Landscape - The competitive landscape in the OTA sector remains stable, with expectations for revenue growth driven by enhanced monetization rates [4] - JD.com is increasing its investment in the hotel sector, while Tongcheng is tapping into lower-tier markets to boost revenue [4] - Ctrip is entering a rapid expansion phase, although it may impact overall profitability [4] Group 4: Retail and Consumer Behavior - Offline retail is expected to recover in Q4, with a year-on-year growth of 5% in retail sales from January to May 2025 [6] - The retail landscape is shifting from traffic acquisition to optimizing existing customer bases, with innovation being crucial for this cycle [6] - Various retail formats are showing signs of recovery, with department stores and specialty shops returning to positive growth [6] Group 5: Hospitality Sector - Hotel demand is recovering, with a projected 10% growth in GMV for Q2 2025, although supply expansion is putting pressure on RevPAR [7] - Economic hotels are performing better than mid-to-high-end hotels, reflecting ongoing trends in consumer preferences [7] Group 6: Local Lifestyle and E-commerce - Competition in local services is intensifying, with major players like Meituan, JD.com, and Alibaba increasing their market presence [8] - The instant retail market in China is projected to reach 780 billion yuan in 2024, growing at 20% year-on-year [8] - E-commerce platforms are expected to enhance their instant retail strategies to capture market share [8] Group 7: Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Yonghui Supermarket, Chongqing Department Store, and Meituan for offline retail; Alibaba for e-commerce; and Ctrip for OTA platforms [9]