欧元/美元价格预测：在1.1700以下可能出现额外损失

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD pair is experiencing a persistent bearish bias, facing resistance around 1.1680, while the dollar remains resilient amid active trade prospects and mixed signals from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding interest rate cuts [2][3][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Euro/USD pair showed instability around the 1.1700 region, retreating to a two-week low between 1.1690 and 1.1680 before regaining momentum later in the day [3]. - Geopolitical and trade uncertainties are keeping investors cautious, with recent U.S. tariffs on Japanese and South Korean goods reigniting broader trade conflict concerns, which in turn strengthens the dollar [4]. - Investors remain cautious about a potential U.S.-EU trade agreement, despite both sides emphasizing the necessity of reaching an accord without significant progress [5]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% in June, raising inflation and employment forecasts, with a potential rate cut of about 50 basis points by year-end [6]. - The FOMC meeting minutes revealed a split among officials regarding a July rate cut, with most expressing concerns over inflation risks from tariffs, yet agreeing on the need for a rate cut later in the year [6]. Group 3: Speculative Positions and Data Outlook - Speculative long positions in the Euro have slightly weakened to approximately 107.5K contracts, while commercial participants have reduced their net short positions to 160.6K contracts [7]. - Key Eurozone data is anticipated, including the final June inflation rate on July 10, followed by the EMU current account data and German wholesale prices on July 11 [8]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Initial resistance for the Euro/USD is at the 2025 high of 1.1830, followed by peaks from September 2018 and June 2018 [9]. - Initial support is at the 55-day simple moving average of 1.1441, with further support levels at 1.1210 and 1.1064, and a psychological level at 1.1000 [9]. - Momentum indicators remain positive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 62 indicating bullish conditions, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) is around 32, suggesting a strengthening trend [9]. Group 5: Mid-term Outlook - The Euro/USD pair appears poised to resume its upward trend unless new geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks occur, supported by easing risk aversion and the prospect of Fed rate cuts [11]. - Ongoing trade tensions and unpredictable tariff policies from President Trump may limit upside potential in the coming months [11].