戴德梁行：上海二季度写字楼区域分化明显

Group 1: Shanghai Office Market - The Grade A office market in Shanghai is experiencing pressure on both volume and price, with a net absorption of only 85,300 square meters in Q2 2025, down 18.4% quarter-on-quarter and 67.6% year-on-year [4] - The vacancy rate for Grade A offices has risen to 23.6% by the end of the quarter, while average rental prices have decreased to 6.99 RMB/square meter/day, reflecting a 1.9% decline [4] - Four new projects added approximately 240,000 square meters of supply, intensifying market competition, with core and emerging business districts each contributing two new projects [4] Group 2: Leasing Demand Structure - Retail trade, manufacturing, and TMT sectors dominate leasing demand, accounting for 28% and 23% respectively, with the financial sector following at 15% [5] - The biopharmaceutical sector has seen a rise in leasing demand, reaching 10% due to significant relocations by well-known domestic and international pharmaceutical companies [5] - The market is expected to face significant supply pressure in the second half of the year, with approximately 1 million square meters of new supply anticipated [5] Group 3: Retail Market Dynamics - The retail market in Shanghai shows a clear distinction between core and non-core business districts, with core districts maintaining an average rental price of 1,877 RMB/month/square meter and an occupancy rate of 94.71% [7] - New projects are focusing on experiential retail, with innovative shopping centers emerging in non-core areas to attract younger consumers [8] - The commercial market is expected to evolve into a new phase of differentiation and upgrading, driven by policy support and market dynamics [11] Group 4: Bulk Property Market - The bulk property transaction market in Shanghai recorded a total transaction value of 15.8 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, with 37 transactions completed, reflecting a significant decline compared to previous years [11] - Domestic investors are showing strong resilience, while foreign investors are strategically withdrawing, leading to a bifurcation in the market [11] - The types of properties being transacted include office, commercial, and residential, with a notable increase in interest in long-term rental apartments and public REITs [12] Group 5: Foreign Investment in Manufacturing - The number of foreign manufacturing and R&D projects in the Yangtze River Delta has slightly decreased, with Europe remaining a key source of investment, particularly from Germany [14] - Automotive and healthcare sectors are the primary focus for foreign investments, with significant projects established in Shanghai [15] - The trend indicates a shift towards larger foreign projects, while smaller enterprises are increasingly setting up in Jiangsu [15] Group 6: Financial Institutions and Project Management - Financial institutions have played a crucial role in ensuring project delivery through various mechanisms, including special loans and asset restructuring [16] - The focus is shifting from risk management to value creation in post-investment management, highlighting the importance of collaboration among government, financial institutions, and developers [16] - The ongoing "guarantee delivery" initiative is expected to enhance the operational efficiency of projects, transitioning from policy-driven support to market-driven sustainability [16] Group 7: Overall Market Outlook - Shanghai is accelerating its development as an international economic, financial, trade, shipping, and innovation center, with policies aimed at optimizing the business environment [17] - The real estate market is expected to benefit from these policies, providing fertile ground for various enterprises to invest and grow in Shanghai [17] - The company aims to leverage its expertise to attract quality projects and resources while closely monitoring policy adjustments and market trends [17]