新能源出海波折不断，光伏、储能或迎来命运“分水岭”

Core Viewpoint - The solar and energy storage industries are seen as pioneers for Chinese companies going global, with energy storage evolving at a faster pace than solar [2] Subsidies and Capacity - The "Big and Beautiful" Act, signed by Trump, significantly alters the landscape for renewable energy subsidies in the U.S., marking a major setback for the industry [4] - The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) previously allowed for a 30% cost subsidy for residential solar projects until 2035, but the new act limits subsidies to projects completed by December 31 of this year, with all subsidies ending by 2026 [4][5] - Chinese solar companies, such as LONGi Green Energy and JinkoSolar, have invested over $2 billion in U.S. solar factories, but the new policies threaten their profitability and market demand [5][6] - The act includes restrictions on "foreign entities," specifically targeting Chinese companies, which could jeopardize existing subsidies for solar projects [6] - In contrast, energy storage projects face less severe impacts from the new legislation, with tax credits remaining intact until 2036 [7] Tariffs and Prices - The reintroduction of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration is expected to create uncertainty for Chinese solar exports, which have already been affected by previous tariffs [8][9] - Chinese solar manufacturers are increasingly looking for new overseas production bases, such as Indonesia, to circumvent U.S. tariffs [10] - The energy storage sector appears to be less affected by tariffs, with the U.S. still relying on external supply chains, primarily from China [10][11] Market Outlook - Despite the challenges, the energy storage market is expected to maintain stability and growth, with ongoing policy support and technological advancements [11] - The rapid changes in the geopolitical landscape pose risks for energy storage companies as they expand internationally, necessitating lessons learned from the solar industry's experiences [11]