赌上特斯拉，马斯克向特朗普“开战”

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk has announced the establishment of a new political party, the "American Party," targeting former ally and current President Trump, following a significant drop in Tesla's market value by $100 billion in a week [2][3]. Group 1: Impact on Tesla - The recent "Big and Beautiful" bill signed by Trump has eliminated several clean energy incentives, which directly impacts Tesla's carbon credit trading business, a revenue source that generated $2.8 billion in the past year, accounting for nearly 40% of its profits [3]. - Morgan Stanley predicted that the cancellation of electric vehicle tax credits could reduce Tesla's annual operating profit by $1.2 billion [3]. - Following the decline in Tesla's second-quarter global vehicle deliveries by 13.48% year-over-year and the public fallout with Trump, Tesla's stock price dropped by 6.79%, resulting in a market value loss of over $68 billion [7]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - Musk's anger towards the new legislation is evident as he criticized it on social media, calling it "absurd," "disgusting," and "destructive," while Trump retaliated by stating Musk has received more subsidies than anyone in history [5]. - Musk's establishment of the "American Party" aims to reclaim freedom for the people and seeks to win 2-3 Senate seats and 8-10 House seats in the 2026 midterm elections, which could shift the legislative balance in a closely divided Congress [5]. - Analysts suggest that Musk's political maneuvering may be a strategy to pressure Trump and the Republican Party into policy compromises by splitting their voter base [5]. Group 3: Challenges Ahead - Establishing a new national political party in the U.S. involves complex certification processes, making it a challenging endeavor [6]. - The "winner-takes-all" electoral system in the U.S. is inherently unfavorable for third-party development, as noted by political experts [6]. - Despite Musk's financial resources, breaking the dominance of the Republican and Democratic parties remains a significant hurdle [7]. Group 4: Broader Implications - Musk's political engagement raises concerns among investors about potential distractions from his business focus, particularly regarding Tesla and SpaceX, which holds $22 billion in federal contracts [7]. - The conflict between Musk and Trump reflects deeper fractures within Trump's political alliance, highlighting the fragile relationship between technology capital and political power in the U.S. [8]. - The situation illustrates the challenges faced by tech capital in attempting to influence political agendas, as evidenced by the backlash against Tesla despite Musk's previous support for Trump [8].