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Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is approaching a pivotal moment in its monetary policy, potentially pausing interest rate cuts by July 2025 and possibly ending the easing cycle altogether after September, which will significantly impact the Eurozone economy and global financial dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - Since June 2024, the ECB has cut key interest rates eight times, with the last five cuts indicating a strong desire to stimulate economic growth and inflation recovery [3]. - Market expectations have cooled, with only a 5% probability of further rate cuts in the upcoming meeting, suggesting a shift towards maintaining the deposit rate at 1.75% [3]. - ECB President Christine Lagarde has indicated that the monetary policy cycle is nearing its end, with June inflation in the Eurozone aligning with the target at 2%, supporting the case for tightening [3][4]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements - Recent ECB meeting minutes reveal significant internal divisions, with most members supporting a 25 basis point cut, but some advocating for maintaining current rates due to concerns about over-stimulation [4]. - The concept of a "neutral rate" has resurfaced, with debates on whether rates have reached a neutral level or remain too accommodative [4]. Group 3: Economic Challenges - The Euro has appreciated by 14% against the dollar this year, complicating the Eurozone's export competitiveness and increasing pressure on manufacturing and export-oriented businesses [6]. - Despite a decrease in inflation, the Eurozone's economic growth remains weak, with consumer demand and business investment not fully recovering to pre-pandemic levels [6]. - Structural issues in the Eurozone economy, such as labor market challenges and supply chain bottlenecks, continue to hinder economic potential [6]. Group 4: Global Economic Context - The timing of the ECB's policy adjustments is closely linked to the global macroeconomic environment, with the need to assess the spillover effects of monetary policy amid tightening global liquidity [7]. - The effectiveness of the ECB's monetary policy will also depend on the internal political situation and the degree of fiscal policy coordination within the Eurozone [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The nearing end of the ECB's easing cycle reflects both improvements in economic fundamentals and a warning of narrowing policy space [9]. - Ongoing debates within the ECB will influence the direction of monetary policy, with the Eurozone's ability to sustain recovery post-rate stabilization reliant on external stability and internal structural reforms [9]. - The transition from quantitative easing to qualitative changes in policy will be crucial for global investors and policymakers to monitor, as the ECB's balance of rates, inflation, and growth will determine the Eurozone's economic fate [9].