黄金巨震下的第三波牛市：95%央行力挺，解码美元裂痕时代的终极逻辑

Group 1 - The gold market has shown significant activity entering 2025, with London and Shanghai gold indices rising by 26.75% and 25.82% respectively since the beginning of the year [2] - In July, gold prices experienced increased volatility, with spot gold dropping below $3,300 per ounce on July 9, reflecting a daily decline of over 1% due to multiple factors including new tariffs announced by Trump and a strong rebound in the dollar index [2][3] - The dual effects of the trade war have created uncertainty in the market, leading to a decrease in risk appetite and providing some support for gold prices despite the overall bearish sentiment [3] Group 2 - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to three main factors: the impact of the trade war, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. bond yields, and the restrained purchasing behavior of central banks [5][6] - Central banks globally have shown a decrease in gold purchasing activity, with a net purchase of 20 tons in May, and China's gold reserves increasing slightly to 73.9 million ounces [5][6] - Despite the current reduction in central bank purchases, a long-term perspective suggests that central banks may increase their gold holdings, with 95% of surveyed central banks indicating plans to continue or increase gold purchases in the next 12 months [8] Group 3 - The ongoing U.S. trade tensions and rising debt levels are expected to drive central banks towards diversifying their reserves away from the dollar and increasing gold purchases, potentially leading to significant price increases for gold [9][10] - Analysts predict that gold prices could reach $3,400 per ounce in the next three months, with a potential range of $3,100 to $3,500 per ounce in the third quarter [10] - The shift in gold's role from a decorative asset to a financial asset is evident, with investment demand surging and jewelry demand declining, indicating a structural change in the gold market [11] Group 4 - Future growth in gold investment is anticipated through enhanced investor education, a comprehensive product system, and improved professional services in the gold investment sector [12] - The current gold bull market is driven by a combination of "dollar credit cracks" and the rise of Eastern powers, suggesting that the market has not yet reached its peak [12]