陈光明对话霍华德·马克斯：不测宏观、锚定价值，看好中美长期投资潜力

Core Insights - The discussion between Howard Marks and Chen Guangming focuses on the current global economic situation, investment strategies, and market opportunities [1][3][4] - Marks expresses optimism about the U.S. economy, stating it remains in a "sustained good state" despite trade policy uncertainties introduced by Trump [1][2][8] - Both Marks and Chen emphasize the importance of intrinsic value in investment decisions, advocating for a long-term, patient approach to investing [1][2][12] Group 1: U.S. Economic Outlook - Marks believes the U.S. economy is vibrant and continues to perform well, despite the volatility caused by Trump's trade policies [2][8][10] - Chen agrees that the U.S. remains a highly rewarding investment destination for the coming decades, dismissing notions of the end of "American exceptionalism" [2][10] - The recent downgrade of U.S. Treasury bonds is viewed as having minimal practical implications, with the default probability only slightly increasing from 0.5% to 1% [2][17] Group 2: Investment Philosophy - Marks emphasizes that investment decisions should start with the assessment of the investment target rather than macroeconomic predictions [12][28] - Both Marks and Chen advocate for maintaining composure during market volatility and focusing on long-term value creation [12][39] - Chen highlights the need for investors to resist emotional impulses, especially in a volatile market environment [27][39] Group 3: Chinese Market Insights - Chen points out that many Chinese companies may be undervalued, citing the example of DeepSeek as a sign of China's potential in technology and innovation [1][21][24] - Marks acknowledges that the U.S. does not monopolize technological advancements, recognizing China's competitive capabilities in sectors like AI [21][22] - Chen expresses optimism about China's long-term economic strength and the potential for significant returns from investments in Chinese companies [24][28] Group 4: Market Volatility and Investment Strategy - Marks and Chen agree that market volatility can create opportunities for value investors, particularly during downturns [12][20][31] - Chen notes that during periods of uncertainty, it is crucial to focus on companies that continue to generate cash flow and maintain intrinsic value [14][27] - Marks stresses the importance of understanding that market fluctuations often exaggerate the perceived changes in company fundamentals [34][39]