波动率降至年内低点，投资者对特朗普关税威胁渐趋淡定

Core Viewpoint - Market volatility has decreased to its lowest level of the year, with the U.S. stock market reaching an all-time high despite escalating trade threats from Trump, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The VIX index, which measures short-term volatility expectations for the S&P 500, has dropped to 16, significantly below the long-term average of around 20 [1]. - Nvidia's market capitalization surpassed an unprecedented $4 trillion, driving a surge in technology stocks [1]. - The U.S. Treasury market's expected volatility index is nearing its lowest level in three years [1]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors are less concerned about Trump's trade threats compared to earlier statements, betting that he will ultimately back down on tariffs that could severely harm U.S. growth [1]. - The "TACO" trading strategy, which stands for "Trump Always Chickens Out," reflects this sentiment shift among investors [1][2]. - HSBC's multi-asset strategy head, Max Kettner, noted a significant change in investor attitudes towards tariffs after May 12 [2]. Group 3: Economic Forecasts - Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 6,100 to 6,600, driven by expectations of earlier interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and strong performance from large U.S. companies [2]. - The upcoming second-quarter earnings season is expected to deliver solid results, contributing to market optimism [2]. Group 4: Risks and Warnings - Despite the prevailing optimism, some investors caution that the stock market's buoyancy may embolden Trump to adopt a more aggressive stance on trade than currently anticipated [3]. - Concerns have been raised about the lack of caution in the market, with the S&P 500 trading at a forward P/E ratio of 24 times, indicating potential overvaluation [3][4]. - Nordea's CIO, Kasper Elmgreen, expressed worries about the absence of concern regarding the significant tariff increases experienced recently [4].