瑞银Joni Teves：黄金仍被低估 可逢低买入｜中环观察

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of new tariffs imposed by the U.S. on imports from 14 countries, which has led to a decline in gold prices, while central banks continue to increase their gold reserves, indicating a strong demand for gold as a diversified asset amidst geopolitical risks [2][4]. Group 1: Tariffs and Gold Prices - U.S. President Trump announced tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries starting August 1, contributing to a drop in gold prices, which fell below $3,300 per ounce, a decrease of approximately $200 from the historical high in late April [2]. - Despite the decline in gold prices, global central banks have been net buyers of gold, with a reported purchase of 20 tons in May, and China's gold reserves increased by 70,000 ounces by the end of June [2][3]. Group 2: Central Bank Demand - The trend of central banks purchasing gold has been ongoing for over a decade, driven by the need for asset diversification, particularly in light of increasing geopolitical risks [2][4]. - It is projected that global central banks will purchase over 1,000 tons of gold annually from 2022 to 2024, accounting for about 25% of total global gold demand each year, which is seen as a significant factor in the recent rise in gold prices [2]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - Investors are expected to continue diversifying their portfolios, with gold being a favored asset due to its low correlation with other assets and its status as a physical asset [5][7]. - The current macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical risks are likely to keep gold as a preferred choice for risk-averse investors, with expectations of increased gold prices in the coming quarters [5][6]. Group 4: Future Price Predictions - UBS has raised its gold price target for the end of 2025 to $3,500 per ounce, citing ongoing investor interest in gold as a diversification strategy amidst economic uncertainties [5]. - Short-term market dynamics may allow for further price corrections, but there remains significant interest in buying gold at lower prices, indicating a potential for price recovery [8]. Group 5: Indicators for Gold Price Movements - Key indicators for assessing short-term gold price movements include tracking gold ETF fund flows, futures market positions, and physical investment market indicators such as premiums or discounts in key markets like India and China [9].