高硫燃料油易跌难涨

Group 1 - The geopolitical risk premium has significantly decreased, leading to weaker performance of fuel oil futures among crude oil varieties due to high valuations and expectations of increased supply from OPEC+ and easing conflicts in the Middle East [1] - Since Q3 2024, high-sulfur fuel oil valuations have risen due to increased power generation demand, OPEC's continued production cuts, and sanctions on Iran and Russia, maintaining historically high levels into H1 2025 [1] - The announcement of accelerated production by OPEC+ and the easing of geopolitical tensions have prompted a rapid exit of funds from high-sulfur fuel oil positions, as profit-taking has increased due to high valuations [1] Group 2 - In the refining sector, China's tax policy adjustments have suppressed demand for high-sulfur fuel oil, with the import tax rate increased from 1% to 3%, leading to higher import costs and weakened processing economics for refineries [2] - The overall fundamentals for high-sulfur fuel oil are weak, with high valuation pressures, rapid OPEC+ production increases, and declining demand expectations limiting price upside potential [2] - The long-term strategy may involve considering short positions at high levels due to the prevailing market conditions [2]