美联储降息预期升温，债券市场迎来投资机遇

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction is crucial for asset prices, with increasing expectations for a shift to a loosening cycle due to limited inflation impact from recent tariff policies [1][2] Group 2 - Tariffs imposed by the U.S. government have had a limited effect on inflation, with the import price index showing no significant increase post-tariff, indicating that the cost burden is primarily on U.S. importers rather than consumers [2] - Core CPI and PPI remain stable, with core PPI growth at only 0.1% in May, contrasting sharply with the 10% tariffs, suggesting that inflationary pressures are easing [2] Group 3 - The current economic environment in the U.S. provides ample space for monetary policy easing, with actual interest rates significantly higher than core inflation rates, leading to expectations of rate cuts starting in September [3] - The market anticipates a gradual shift to a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, with the federal funds rate potentially dropping to 3.75% by year-end [3] Group 4 - Trade policy impacts are expected to be limited, with recent agreements showing a compromise on tariffs, indicating a stable external environment for the bond market over the next few quarters [4] Group 5 - The ten-year Treasury ETF (511260) is highlighted as a key investment tool in the upcoming loosening cycle, effectively reflecting market trends and providing flexibility for investors [5] - The ETF is positioned to benefit from anticipated declines in ten-year Treasury yields as the market adjusts to expected rate cuts, supported by both policy and market dynamics [5]