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反内卷,刻不容缓!
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-10 15:22

Group 1 - The global economy has struggled to recover post-pandemic, influenced by multiple overlapping cycles and unpredictable U.S. policies, particularly the "reciprocal tariffs" implemented this year [3][4] - The article discusses three major shifts: the global order shift, trade shift, and technological shift, emphasizing that technology ultimately determines a nation's fate [5][6][8] Group 2 - The essence of the U.S.-China trade war is a struggle for national destiny, with both countries facing challenges in economic growth, social stability, technological innovation, and international reputation [9][10] - The trade war reflects a deeper institutional conflict between the governance systems of the U.S. and China [10] Group 3 - Trump's tariff strategy aims to reshape U.S. manufacturing, reduce reliance on Chinese production, increase fiscal revenue, and address social inequality [10][21][22] - The U.S. economy operates on four cycles: a dollar-centered global trade system, a Silicon Valley tech-centric global supply chain, a military-based global security system, and a financial system centered around the Federal Reserve [10][14][16] Group 4 - The trade war could lead to three potential outcomes: a prolonged standoff, a negotiated settlement, or a partial agreement with mutual tariff increases [25] - China has various countermeasures available, including reciprocal tariffs, restrictions on specific U.S. imports, and accelerating the internationalization of the yuan [26][28] Group 5 - The U.S. is caught in a dilemma of not wanting to decouple from China while simultaneously restricting high-tech flows to China [29][30] - The impact of tariffs on China's economy could be significant, with potential GDP growth reductions of 0.5% to 1.5% depending on the tariff levels [31][32] Group 6 - The long-term trajectory of U.S.-China relations is characterized by a mix of cooperation and competition, with tariffs being just one aspect of a broader economic strategy [36] - China is adjusting its economic model to reduce dependence on the U.S. market, with ASEAN becoming its largest export market [39][40] Group 7 - Recent breakthroughs in U.S.-China trade negotiations have led to a reduction in tariffs, indicating a potential easing of tensions [41] - The global economic landscape is shifting towards a restructured trade system, with the U.S. moving away from globalization and seeking to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains [43][44] Group 8 - China's economic challenges include insufficient domestic demand and external pressures from U.S. tariffs, leading to a cycle of reduced consumption and investment [62][64] - The article outlines several key trends for China's future economy, including a focus on hard technology and strategic industries, as well as the need for significant policy adjustments [69][70] Group 9 - The U.S. has intensified restrictions on China's access to advanced technologies, particularly in artificial intelligence and semiconductor industries, highlighting the competitive nature of the tech landscape [72][73] - The article emphasizes the importance of materials science and technological breakthroughs as critical to future economic advancements [88][89]