张尧浠：降息前景或超预期、金价震荡调整后仍待再攀升

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for interest rate cuts may exceed expectations, and after fluctuations, gold prices are anticipated to rise again [1][6]. Market Performance - On July 10, international gold prices rebounded, closing up 0.32% after fluctuating between a high of $3330.16 and a low of $3310.15 [1]. - The dollar index experienced a rise but faced resistance at the mid-line, limiting the downward pressure on gold prices [3]. Economic Indicators - Some Federal Reserve officials indicated that inflation impacts are not yet visible, suggesting a delay until next year, which has pressured gold prices [3]. - However, the possibility of two interest rate cuts this year, as mentioned by Fed's Daly, has supported gold prices [5]. Future Projections - Economic growth consensus for 2025 and 2026 has been revised down from 2.2% to 1.5%, indicating a potential for more aggressive monetary easing by the Fed in the future [6]. - The anticipated interest rate cuts next year could lead to significant increases in gold prices, similar to or exceeding the gains seen in the past two years [6]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate a potential top formation for gold prices, with risks of a decline to $3000 or $2600 unless the price remains above the May moving average [8]. - Daily charts show that while gold prices have been fluctuating downwards, they remain above the support of the weekly ascending channel, suggesting a possible upcoming rebound [10]. Trading Strategy - Suggested trading points for gold include support levels at $3313 or $3304 and resistance levels at $3334 or $3344 [10]. - For silver, support is noted at $36.95 or $36.75, with resistance at $37.30 or $37.60 [10].