金价预测：黄金/美元在复甦之路上与50日均线抗争

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are rebounding, driven by concerns over trade tensions and a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, following recent tariff announcements by President Trump [1][2][3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have rebounded from a weekly low of $3283, supported by the weakening U.S. dollar and declining Treasury yields [3][5]. - The U.S. Treasury yields have decreased due to renewed economic growth concerns and strong demand for $39 billion in 10-year bonds [6]. - President Trump announced new tariffs on various goods, including a 20% tariff on products from the Philippines and 50% on copper imports, effective August 1 [6][7]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold prices successfully recovered the key 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $3297, despite briefly testing below this level [12]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently near 48.50, indicating a lack of bullish confidence [12]. - A sustained breakthrough above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance at $3323 is necessary for a meaningful rebound towards the 21-day SMA at $3346 [13]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The focus is on Trump's tariff negotiations, upcoming U.S. economic data releases, and speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers for new trading signals for gold prices [9]. - Continued weakness in the dollar and low Treasury yields may provide ongoing support for non-yielding gold prices [9]. - If gold prices are rejected at the 50-day SMA, increased selling pressure could lead to a test of the 38.2% Fibonacci support level at $3297 [14].