Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-07-11 00:42Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities emphasizes that driving price recovery in the photovoltaic (PV) industry is an effective measure and an important first step towards achieving "anti-involution" in the sector [1][6] Price Recovery and Market Dynamics - A reasonable recovery in the industry chain prices is seen as a key method for "anti-involution" and a prerequisite for supply-side reform [2] - The current "anti-involution" initiative aims to address low-price disorderly competition among companies, with market regulation being a direct demand and supply-side reform as a medium to long-term goal [2] - Recent price increases in silicon materials have reached approximately 45,000 yuan per ton, marking a 25% increase, while N-type materials have seen a 6%-7% rise in average transaction prices [2][3] Impact on Supply Chain and Competition - The price increases are expected to have a cascading effect down the supply chain, with N-type silicon wafer prices rising by 8%-12% due to upstream silicon material price adjustments [2] - The differentiation in pricing among manufacturers is anticipated, with lower-cost producers gaining market advantages while higher-cost firms may face inventory buildup and financial strain [3] Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite the immediate effects of price recovery, achieving the exit of outdated production capacity and restructuring the supply side will not be a quick process [4] - The industry is currently experiencing a slowdown in demand growth, particularly after a recent surge in installations, which may limit the tolerance for price increases in the supply chain [4] - A substantial improvement in market supply-demand relationships is necessary for further price recovery in the industry chain [4] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on leading companies within the PV main industry chain that possess long-term competitiveness and the potential for price and volume recovery as the industry undergoes capacity reduction [6]