黄金今日行情走势要点分析（2025.7.11）

Fundamental Analysis - Trump's tariff policy is set to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper and Brazilian goods starting August 1, escalating trade tensions with Brazil. Brazilian President Lula seeks diplomatic solutions but warns of reciprocal measures if tariffs are enacted. This policy may increase commodity prices, intensifying inflationary pressures, which presents both opportunities and challenges for gold as an inflation hedge. However, a stronger dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields could offset this benefit [3]. - Recent U.S. labor data shows initial jobless claims fell to 227,000, below the expected 235,000, marking a seven-week low. Conversely, continuing claims rose to 1.965 million, the highest since November 2021, indicating increased difficulty for unemployed individuals in finding new jobs [4]. - Strong employment data has bolstered the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, further suppressing gold prices. Potential signs of labor market weakness may provide support for gold's safe-haven demand in the future [5]. - The June Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate that while some officials suggest a possible rate cut this month, most remain cautious about inflation pressures from tariffs, preferring to maintain the current policy rate of 4.25%-4.50%. St. Louis Fed President Bullard noted that the impact of tariffs on inflation may not fully materialize until late 2025 or early 2026, leading to a cautious stance on rate cuts. The futures market anticipates a 25 basis point cut in September and a total of 53 basis points by year-end. Fed Governor Waller's comments have injected some optimism, suggesting that the upcoming policy meeting may open the door for rate cuts. Lower interest rates typically weaken the dollar and boost gold prices, but the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies may continue to limit gold's upside potential [6]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices have been in a converging triangle pattern since encountering resistance at the 3500 level on April 22. Following a recent decline, gold showed signs of recovery, closing with a small gain on Thursday. The current moving averages are intertwined, indicating a short-term sideways market. Key resistance levels to watch are between 3340-3346, which coincide with the 20-day and 30-day moving averages and previous resistance points. A breakout above this range could extend the bullish trend towards the previous highs of 3365-3366 and the Fibonacci retracement level of 3374. Support is focused around 3284, formed by connecting the lows from May 15 and June 30 [7]. - On the four-hour chart, the price has recently approached a trendline resistance formed by the previous high since the decline from 3452. The price touched the 3330 resistance level, and there are indications of a potential upward breakout. If this occurs, the strategy should focus on maintaining support at the recent low of 3310, looking for buying opportunities during price pullbacks. Key upward targets include the 3345/3346 and 3365/3366 regions, while support levels to monitor are the recent low of 3310 and the lower low of 3282 [9].