多空因素交织 甲醇上下空间皆有限

Core Viewpoint - The methanol market is experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, production adjustments, and seasonal demand changes, leading to a complex supply-demand dynamic. Group 1: Price Movements - Following the geopolitical conflict in Iran, methanol futures surged to 2600 yuan/ton but have since retreated to around 2400 yuan/ton after the conflict eased [1] - In late June, methanol spot prices jumped due to tight port supplies and low inventories, while futures prices remained stable, leading to a divergence between spot and futures markets [2] Group 2: Production and Supply - Methanol production remains high, with several long-term idled plants restarting operations due to favorable production margins, including facilities from Qinghai Salt Lake and Hualu Hengrui [2] - Despite high production margins, some gas-based methanol plants are still operating at a loss, with losses nearing 200 yuan/ton [3] - Iranian methanol plants are gradually restarting after a ceasefire, with several facilities resuming operations, although some face operational challenges [4] Group 3: Import and Logistics - New regulations limiting older vessels from docking at certain ports may complicate logistics and increase costs for methanol imports from Iran [5] - The recent recovery in methanol import profits is expected to boost import volumes, although low Iranian inventories may delay the return to normal shipping levels [4] Group 4: Demand Dynamics - The traditional downstream sector is facing a seasonal downturn, with processing profits remaining below breakeven levels, leading to reduced demand expectations for methanol [8] - Despite some recovery in production margins for MTO (Methanol-to-Olefins) plants, many are still operating below cash flow breakeven, indicating potential future reductions in operating rates [9] Group 5: Inventory Levels - Current methanol inventories are at structurally low levels, with total production enterprise inventories at 35.23 million tons and main port inventories at 67.37 million tons [10] - The combination of rising import expectations and upcoming maintenance schedules for coastal olefin plants may lead to fluctuations in port inventories [10] Group 6: Market Outlook - The methanol market is expected to experience limited upward or downward movement, with a focus on the operational status of Iranian methanol plants and downstream demand for high-priced methanol [11]