Zheshang Securities(SH:601878) Jin Rong Shi Bao·2025-07-11 01:44Group 1: Market Overview - The real estate market has shown signs of recovery in 2023 after experiencing fluctuations in recent years, with industry experts expressing optimism about future performance due to supportive policies [1][2][3] - In 2024, the overall real estate market is expected to remain in an adjustment phase, with a significant decline in land transfer fees and new construction areas compared to the peak in 2020, with a 67% decrease reported [2][3] - The construction industry has seen a 7.89% year-on-year decline in revenue for companies focused on housing construction, with new contract amounts also decreasing by 1.43% [2] Group 2: Policy Support - Various supportive policies have been introduced since May 2023, including a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates for housing loans, aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [6][7] - The central government has emphasized the importance of a new model for real estate development, with significant funding allocated for urban renewal projects to promote stable and healthy market growth [6][7] - The implementation of these policies has led to an increase in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with the latter gradually surpassing new home sales in several provinces [7] Group 3: Market Trends - In the first three quarters of 2024, new home sales have seen a noticeable year-on-year decline, but the relaxation of purchase restrictions in some cities has led to a rise in second-hand home transactions, maintaining market activity [3][4] - The core cities have shown signs of price stabilization in the second-hand housing market, with a notable recovery in transaction volumes since the fourth quarter of 2024 [3][4] - The land auction market has also seen a 39% year-on-year increase in transaction amounts, indicating a recovery in land premium rates in first-tier cities, which may positively influence second-hand housing prices [4]