百利好早盘分析：降息讨论热烈 黄金振幅收窄

Group 1: Gold Market - San Francisco Fed President Daly indicated that inflation is moving towards the 2% target, and the most likely scenario is two rate cuts by the Fed this year [1] - St. Louis Fed President Bullard stated that it is still too early to determine whether the impact of tariffs on inflation is temporary or persistent, with expectations for data to gradually emerge between June and September [1] - JPMorgan CEO Dimon mentioned that if inflation concerns rise, the Fed may refrain from cutting rates, with a potential 40%-50% chance of rate hikes if inflation increases [1] - There is increasing divergence in views on rate cuts within the Fed, with a low probability of a cut in July, making the upcoming meeting at the end of the month significant for future action plans [1] - Technically, gold has been fluctuating downwards, facing resistance at $3,330 and support at $3,310 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Trump's tariff policy has escalated, announcing a 50% tariff on copper imports and goods from Brazil starting August 1 [3] - The U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 5 recorded 227,000, down from the previous 232,000, indicating a resilient labor market [3] - OPEC's "World Oil Outlook 2050" predicts global oil demand will increase by 18.2 million barrels per day from 2024 to 2050, reaching 122.9 million barrels per day [3] - Analyst Owen from Zhisheng Research believes that while long-term oil demand is expected to rise, short-term challenges from economic downturns and a rebound in the dollar may hinder oil price increases [3] - Technically, oil faced resistance at $68.90 and has shown a fluctuating upward trend over the past two weeks, with key resistance levels at $67.80 and $69 [4] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices surged significantly on July 8, reaching a high of $5.80, with a likelihood of further increases [6] - Short-term support for copper is at $5.45, while resistance levels are at $5.65 and $5.80 [6] Group 4: Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index has been fluctuating between 39,300 and 40,000 this week, with attention on potential breakouts; a rise above 40,000 could target 40,400, while a drop below 39,300 could lead to 38,900 [7]