金荣中国：特朗普宣布对加拿大加征35%关税，金价冲高回落加剧见顶预期

Market Overview - International gold maintained a volatile trend on July 10, opening at $3309.58 per ounce, reaching a high of $3330.25, a low of $3307.89, and closing at $3319.62 [1] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased by 5,000 to 227,000 for the week ending July 5, marking the lowest level in two months and the fourth consecutive week of decline [2] - Continuing claims rose to 1.97 million, the highest level since the end of 2021, indicating challenges for unemployed Americans in finding jobs [2] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggested that despite strong employment data, the Fed should consider lowering interest rates in the July meeting, arguing that current policy rates are too high [3] - Waller emphasized that inflation has cooled significantly and that the Fed's decision-making should not be influenced by political factors [3] - San Francisco Fed President Daly indicated the possibility of two rate cuts this year, noting that the impact of tariffs on prices is less severe than expected [5] - Fed officials expressed that the current economic situation is good, with the labor market near full employment, but inflation risks remain [5] Trade Developments - President Trump announced plans to impose a blanket tariff of 15% or 20% on most trade partners, dismissing concerns about negative impacts on the stock market or inflation [8] - On July 10, Trump declared a 35% tariff on goods imported from Canada, effective August 1 [9] Geopolitical Context - Trump expressed disappointment with Russia regarding the ongoing Ukraine conflict and mentioned a new agreement for U.S. weapon shipments to NATO, which NATO will finance [10] Gold ETF Holdings - The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold ETF, increased its holdings by 1.44 tons to a total of 948.81 tons [11] - The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in July is 92.8%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 7.2% [11]