高盛策略转向均衡配置：软件服务与媒体娱乐成增长核心，材料板块逆势受宠

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs' investment strategy team has made significant adjustments to the U.S. sector allocation model, recommending a more balanced sector allocation strategy for investors [1] - The updated sector model indicates that an equal-weight sector allocation portfolio has a significantly higher probability of achieving over 5% excess returns compared to an equal-weight S&P 500 index over the next six months [1] Sector Recommendations - The software and services, as well as media and entertainment sectors, continue to hold their previous overweight ratings, while the new materials sector has been included in the core recommendations for the first time [1] - The consumer staples sector has been removed from the priority allocation list [1] - The report emphasizes that the current U.S. stock market exhibits an overly optimistic outlook on the economic prospects, with both downside risks and upside potential present in the actual economic performance [1] Investment Strategy - The strategy report suggests avoiding significant bias towards cyclical or defensive sectors, advocating for a balanced investment portfolio that can withstand market fluctuations [1] - In terms of specific sector selection, software and services (long-term growth expectation of 14%) and media and entertainment (long-term growth expectation of 14%) stand out due to their robust growth prospects, particularly in a moderately growing economy [1] - Defensive sectors such as utilities and real estate are favored due to the expectation of a slight decline in bond yields [1] - Among cyclical sectors, the materials sector is viewed as having a better allocation advantage compared to the energy sector, primarily based on expectations of falling oil prices [1] Adjustments and Market Outlook - The industrial sector has been downgraded due to its overall valuation being at historical highs, with the model indicating the lowest likelihood of achieving significant excess returns over the next six months [2] - Although the consumer staples and healthcare sectors are not explicitly bearish, their allocation priority has been slightly lowered compared to the model's baseline recommendations [2] - The adjustments reflect Goldman Sachs' neutral judgment on the market environment, acknowledging the reasonableness of current market optimism while diversifying allocations to hedge against potential risks [2] - The strategy team highlights that in the context of economic growth uncertainty, sectors that combine growth potential with reasonable valuations will exhibit greater investment resilience, while excessive bets on a single direction may face dual volatility risks [2]