当红理事沃勒称可以考虑7月降息，美联储对是否降息分歧明显

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller supports the idea of considering a rate cut in July, stating that current monetary policy is "too tight" and that tariffs have not significantly increased inflation, which could justify a rate reduction [1] - The June non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, indicating a resilient labor market that may influence the Fed's decision to delay rate cuts [1] - There is a division within the Federal Reserve regarding the timing of potential rate cuts, with some members suggesting that the impact of tariffs on inflation may be short-term or not severe, while others believe that inflation risks still exist [4] Group 2 - St. Louis Fed President Alberto M. Musalem expressed uncertainty about the long-term effects of tariffs on inflation, emphasizing that the determination of consumer costs and the impact on intermediate goods will take time to assess [2] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly indicated that tariffs might have a one-time effect on inflation, and she anticipates that the Fed may consider two rate cuts this year, with September being a potential opportunity [4] - The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 93.3% probability that the Fed will maintain rates in July, while there is a 6.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut, and a 64.5% probability of a cut in September [4]