Core Viewpoint - Feihe has issued a profit warning for 1H25, expecting a revenue decline of 7.9-9.9% and a net profit drop of 36-47%, primarily due to inventory adjustments and impairment losses on bulk powder [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Forecast - Feihe anticipates 1H25 revenue between 9.1-9.3 billion RMB, with a net profit of 1-1.2 billion RMB, which is below market expectations [1] - The company has initiated an inventory reduction strategy, aiming to lower channel inventory to below 0.5X, impacting sales performance in May and June [1] - The introduction of a 1.2 billion RMB fertility subsidy in the form of free formula milk has negatively affected revenue in the first half but is expected to benefit customer acquisition and future revenue growth [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - For the full year, the company guides for low single-digit revenue growth, with expectations of double-digit growth in the second half due to recovery post-inventory adjustments and an increase in newborn population [2] - The company plans to initiate a share buyback of no less than 1 billion RMB and maintain a dividend payout of at least 2 billion RMB, reflecting a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [2] - Profit forecasts for 25/26 have been revised down by 26%/16% to 2.87 billion/3.66 billion RMB, with a target price adjustment of 27% to 6 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 31% [2]
中国飞鹤(06186.HK)：多因素影响1H业绩 关注2H边际改善趋势