“反内卷”有望构建良性产业结构 新能源行业上游龙头估值体系或重构

Core Viewpoint - The central government's emphasis on "anti-involution" aims to address the chaotic price competition in the new energy sector, particularly in the photovoltaic and lithium battery industries, which are currently facing severe profit margin compression [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Challenges and Responses - The "anti-involution" policy is seen as a corrective measure to the unreasonable conditions in the industry and is crucial for promoting high-quality development [2]. - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing supply-demand mismatches, and "anti-involution" may alleviate these issues through capacity mergers, elimination of outdated production capacity, and regulation of low-price competition [2]. - The core goal of "anti-involution" is to help the industry escape from long-term cash outflows and continuous losses, aiming for a healthy and sustainable development [2]. Group 2: Impact on Market Dynamics - The "anti-involution" initiative focuses on the pain points of the new energy sector, specifically the "supply-demand structure mismatch and vicious price wars," guiding companies to stabilize expectations, prices, and confidence to avoid systemic risks [3]. - The primary beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" policy are expected to be upstream leading enterprises with resource advantages, while midstream sectors with low barriers to entry may face marginalization or even elimination risks [3]. - The "anti-involution" is viewed as a prelude to rebalancing industrial order, facilitating a transition towards increased concentration and value return in the market [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The core of "anti-involution" lies in promoting technological innovation and industry consolidation, aiming to curb vicious low-price competition through market-oriented measures [3]. - As the policy is implemented, the new energy sector may evolve into a development pattern driven by technological advancement [3].