J&T EXPRESS(1519.HK)：IMPRESSIVE PARCEL VOLUME GROWTH IN SEA

Core Insights - J&T reported strong operating data for 2Q25, with parcel volume increasing by an average of 24% YoY, primarily driven by a remarkable 66% YoY growth in the Southeast Asia (SEA) market [1][2] - The earnings forecast for 2025E/26E has been revised, with an increase of 18% for 2025E and a slight decrease of 2% for 2026E, reflecting an upward adjustment in parcel volume forecasts despite a minor reduction in pricing assumptions [1] - The target price (TP) has been raised to HK$10 from HK$6.9, indicating a positive outlook for J&T in the Hong Kong market due to its market share gains in the SEA region [1] Southeast Asia Market - The SEA volume surged by 66% YoY to 1.69 billion units, with growth accelerating from 50% in 1Q25, benefiting from strong sales growth from platforms like Temu, Shein, and TikTok [2] - Management believes that J&T has further strengthened its competitive advantage over major peers in terms of parcel volume growth in the SEA market [2] China Market - In China, parcel volume grew by 15% YoY to 5.6 billion units, although the growth rate slowed from 27% in 1Q24 [3] - The largest customer in China is PDD, followed by Douyin and Alibaba, with reverse parcels and individual orders accounting for 7% of total volume [3] - Management expressed a conservative outlook due to uncertainties from intense price competition [3] New Markets - New markets experienced a 24% YoY increase in volume to 89 million units, driven by growth in the Brazilian market [4] - J&T has initiated cooperation with Mercado Libre this year, and the entry of more e-commerce platforms into Brazil presents additional growth opportunities [4]