卓创资讯：二季度大米价格延续涨势 三季度或高位震荡后回落

Core Viewpoint - The national average price of rice in China is experiencing fluctuations, with a notable increase in the second quarter of 2025, while the overall supply and demand dynamics suggest a potential decline in prices in the third quarter [1][8]. Price Trends - As of the end of June 2025, the national average price of rice reached 4,075 yuan per ton, marking a 2% increase from early April, but a 2.38% decrease compared to the same period in 2024 [1]. - The average price for the second quarter of 2025 was 4,031.51 yuan per ton, reflecting a 1.35% increase from the first quarter, yet a 3.44% decrease year-on-year [1]. Supply Dynamics - By the end of June, the grain sales progress in major production areas reached approximately 98%, an increase of 7 percentage points since March [3]. - In southern production areas, the remaining rice stocks have dropped to 7% or less, while northeastern areas still have 10%-15% remaining [3]. - The limited supply of rice at the grassroots level is causing difficulties for rice mills in sourcing raw materials, leading to price increases [3]. Mill Operations and Demand - The average operating rate of rice mills in the second quarter increased from 14% to 17%, a 3 percentage point rise, with an average of 16% for the quarter, which is a 1 percentage point increase from the first quarter but a 3 percentage point decrease from the previous year [5]. - Demand for rice is expected to influence prices positively, with increased orders during the Dragon Boat Festival and mid-year promotions leading to a rise in mill operations [5]. Future Price Expectations - In the third quarter, rice prices are anticipated to rise initially before experiencing a decline, with overall supply expected to be more relaxed [7]. - The demand for rice is projected to decrease in July due to seasonal factors, but may increase in August as schools reopen and festivals approach [7]. - The average price of rice is expected to stabilize in July, with a potential slight decrease, while August may see a temporary boost in demand before a more significant decline in September as new rice enters the market [8].