巨富金业：美联储“点阵图”显分化-7位官员认为今年不应降息

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials have differing views on the interest rate outlook, primarily due to varying expectations on how tariffs will impact inflation. Some believe tariffs will only cause a one-time price increase, while the majority think tariffs may have a more lasting effect on inflation [2] - The "dot plot" released after the meeting indicates that out of 19 policymakers, 10 expect at least two rate cuts this year, 2 expect one cut, and 7 believe rates will remain unchanged [2] - Overall, participants expressed a relatively optimistic view of the economic situation, noting robust economic growth and low unemployment rates, which somewhat alleviates the urgency for rate cuts [2] Group 2 - Most policymakers lean towards a rate cut this year, but there are differing opinions on the pace and magnitude of such cuts. Some are open to considering a cut at the end of July, while others believe it may not be appropriate to cut rates this year [3] - The minutes highlight significant uncertainty regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation, including timing, extent, and duration. Although economic data has not yet shown widespread effects from tariffs, the expansion of tariffs and other policy changes by the Trump administration has increased economic uncertainty [3]