国开债券ETF(159651)交投活跃，机构：10国债-存单利差可能重新定价

Group 1 - The National Development Bank Bond ETF (159651) is experiencing a tight market with a latest quote of 106.23 yuan as of July 11, 2025, and has accumulated a 1.86% increase over the past year as of July 10, 2025 [1] - The ETF has a trading volume of 10.46 million yuan with a turnover rate of 1.19% on the day, and an average daily trading volume of 534 million yuan over the past year [1] - The ETF has seen a net value increase of 4.59% over the past two years, with a historical monthly profit probability of 88.23% and a 100% profit probability for holding over two years [1] Group 2 - The ETF closely tracks the China Bond - 0-3 Year National Development Bank Bond Index, which includes policy bank bonds with a maturity of up to three years [2] - Current market conditions indicate a shift in the relationship between stocks and bonds, with speculation that the demand for 10-year government bonds may lead to a repricing, potentially widening the spread between government bonds and certificates of deposit by an estimated 5-10 basis points [3] - The bond market is showing signs of weakness, which may affect credit bonds, while the 2-5 year National Development Bank bonds may become more attractive as a safe haven for funds [3]