上一轮“反内卷”中，钢铁、煤炭走势如何？

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" policy is gaining traction in the market, aimed at addressing the overcapacity issues in traditional industries and enhancing profitability for industrial enterprises [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context - In the previous round of supply-side reforms, key sectors such as steel, coal, and building materials were prioritized, resulting in significant price increases: coal sector rose by 18.03%, steel by 20.04%, and building materials by 29.96% from February 2016 to December 2017 [2][4]. Group 2: Current Industry Focus - Photovoltaics: The industry is undergoing self-regulation with major companies committing to a 30% production cut starting July, which may stabilize prices and improve profitability [5][6]. - Building Materials: A coalition of 33 major construction firms has initiated a campaign against excessive competition, with the China Cement Association advocating for high-quality development and price increases to combat rising costs [9]. - Coal: The supply-side reform focuses on reducing production capacity, which is expected to boost coal prices and profits. The coal sector is also benefiting from high dividend yields, with the index showing over 6% yield as of mid-2025 [10]. - Steel: The steel industry faces challenges from declining demand and increased export pressure. However, if government policies are implemented to control production, profitability may improve as prices are already at historical lows [11]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Photovoltaics ETF: The potential for recovery in the photovoltaic sector presents an investment opportunity [9]. - Building Materials ETF: The largest market scale ETF in the building materials sector is highlighted as a key investment [9]. - Coal ETF: The only coal ETF in the market is noted for its growing scale and high dividend potential [10]. - Steel ETF: The unique steel ETF in the market is also mentioned as an investment opportunity [12].