黄金，涨！后劲还足吗？

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals futures market is experiencing a general rise, with COMEX gold futures increasing by 0.36% to $3333.00 per ounce and COMEX silver futures rising by 2.72% to $37.63 per ounce, indicating a positive outlook for gold prices in the near future [1]. Group 1: Central Bank Gold Reserves - As of the end of June, China's gold reserves reached 73.9 million ounces, an increase of 70,000 ounces from the end of May, marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [3]. - Analysts suggest that the continuous increase in gold reserves by central banks, especially in emerging markets, reflects a growing emphasis on the reserve function of gold, providing medium to long-term support for gold investment value [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Predictions - The recent passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill by the U.S. Congress may increase the national debt, putting pressure on the dollar and supporting gold prices [3]. - The uncertainty in trade negotiations between the U.S. and other countries, along with potential political turmoil from developments such as Elon Musk's new political party, is expected to bolster gold prices due to heightened risk aversion [3]. - The expectation of a near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, coupled with a weak dollar outlook, is anticipated to favorably impact gold prices [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Asset Correlation - Gold's low correlation with other assets indicates a long-term distrust in the dollar system, making gold a valuable tool for diversifying investment risk [5]. - The outlook for the second half of the year suggests that gold prices will rise due to factors such as U.S. tariff threats, expanding fiscal deficits, and ongoing global central bank gold purchases [5]. - Forecasts indicate that gold prices may experience fluctuations from July to August, primarily due to internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate changes [6]. Group 4: Inflation and Geopolitical Factors - The impact of U.S. tariff policies on economic growth and inflation is expected to become evident, leading the Federal Reserve to rebalance its focus on employment and inflation, which may result in interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar [6]. - The increasing frequency of global geopolitical conflicts is likely to enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, thereby elevating its status and demand in global asset allocation [6].