香港强积金上半年平均回报近10% 富达国际：下半年对股票投资审慎乐观

Group 1 - The average return of Hong Kong's Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF) reached 9.94% in the first half of 2025, significantly higher than the 2.4% average return reported by Fidelity International in its 2025 Asia-Pacific Investor Survey [1] - Among MPF funds, equities performed exceptionally well, with average returns of approximately 20% for both mainland China and Hong Kong stocks, making them the most favorable category [1] - Conservative funds lagged behind, with an average return of 1.4% [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, Fidelity International expresses cautious optimism regarding stock investments, suggesting a temporary reduction in bond holdings while maintaining a low cash allocation [1] - The global market is influenced by various economic factors, and typically, stock performance benefits during the late-cycle phase [1] - In terms of regional allocation, mainland China and Hong Kong stocks are expected to continue performing well, supported by consumer goods replacement programs and positive developments in US-China trade negotiations [1] Group 3 - The recent US tax and spending legislation is expected to provide additional fiscal stimulus to the economy, with a robust job market and strong household consumption reflecting stable demand for goods and services [2] - Despite high valuations in the US stock market and lowered earnings forecasts, potential risks remain from trade tariff uncertainties [2] - Investors should monitor whether the US economy experiences a "Goldilocks scenario," where policy stimulus effectively boosts the economy without triggering inflation, allowing the Federal Reserve to consider restarting interest rate cuts [2] Group 4 - In Europe, the European Central Bank's interest rates are nearing neutral levels, limiting further rate cuts unless economic conditions worsen [2] - Ongoing trade negotiations between the EU and the US will significantly impact the macroeconomic landscape, especially with anticipated increases in defense spending [2] - In the Asia-Pacific region, a weaker US dollar creates investment opportunities for Asian and emerging markets, with total returns improving due to currency appreciation [2]