7月11日，原油大涨5%后又大降，国内油价大涨105元/吨后恢复下跌

Core Viewpoint - The domestic fuel prices are set to decrease for the sixth time this year, with the next adjustment scheduled for July 15, 2025, as the current pricing cycle shows a downward trend after a significant increase in previous months [1][3]. Price Trends - In June, domestic refined oil prices surged by 325 yuan/ton due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, which raised concerns about potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - The most recent price adjustment on July 1 resulted in an increase of 235 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel, bringing the average gasoline price to 8405 yuan/ton, which is comparable to levels seen in the third quarter of the previous year [3][5]. - The current pricing cycle from July 2 to July 15 has seen a decrease of 245 yuan/ton at the start, with a cumulative drop of 145 yuan/ton noted as of July 11 [5][7]. International Oil Market Influence - The international oil market has shown a recovery, with WTI crude oil prices rising from $65.11 to $68.38 per barrel, reflecting a more than 5% increase during the current cycle [5]. - As of July 11, the average international crude oil price was reported at $68.12 per barrel, with a decrease of 3.41% noted recently [5][7]. - The increase in U.S. crude oil inventories by 7.07 million barrels has contributed to the current market dynamics, potentially leading to further price adjustments [7]. Future Expectations - The upcoming price adjustment on July 15 is anticipated to reflect a decrease, with the possibility of a larger reduction if international oil prices continue to decline [7].