美债警报解除反酿大危机？5000亿流动性“海啸”正扑向美股

Group 1 - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill has temporarily alleviated concerns over a U.S. debt default by raising the borrowing limit by $5 trillion, but it exacerbates long-term debt issues, with an estimated increase of $3.4 trillion in national debt over the next decade [1] - The Treasury General Account (TGA) has been depleted during the debt standoff, dropping from approximately $840 billion in February to about $340 billion by July 8, and its rebuilding may tighten liquidity conditions [1][2] - The TGA plays a crucial role in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, and its increase could lead to a significant reduction in reserve balances, potentially resulting in a liquidity loss of around $510 billion by the end of September [2][3] Group 2 - Historically, TGA rebuilding has negatively impacted the S&P 500 index, as seen in January 2022 when TGA rebuilding and increased reverse repo activities led to a significant drop in reserve balances, affecting margin levels and the index [4][5] - The last TGA rebuilding in the summer of 2023 did not impact the stock market due to the depletion of reverse repo tools, but current conditions suggest that with reverse repos nearing their low point and ongoing quantitative tightening, a decline in reserves is expected [5] - The anticipated increase in TGA and a decrease in reserve balances to around $3 trillion or lower could lead to a liquidity crunch in the market [5]